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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Eickhout, Mr Gerbrandy, Ms Pietikäinen, Mr Saramo and Ms Wolters, MEPs, on the collateral framework
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Private investment, R&D and European Structural and Investment Funds: crowding-in or crowding-out?
We employ a novel regional dataset on European private investment and business R&D spanning the years 2000 to 2021, along with comprehensive historical data on European Union Structural and Investment (ESI) funds, to estimate whether ESIfunds have crowding-in or crowding-out effects on private investment and business R&D. Our analysis, leveraging regional variation and a fiscal instrument immune to region-specific shocks, reveals a significant crowding-in effect, with 1 euro in ESI funds increasing private investment by 1.1 euros and business R&D by 0.1 euros after two years. The effect is stronger in developed regions for private investment and in less developed regions for R&D. Additionally, crowding-in effects are stronger in regions where corporate private debt is relatively higher. Among the different ESI funds, the Cohesion Fund (CF) shows the largest estimated impact, while the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) yields somewhat smaller but statistically more robust results.
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The cost channel of monetary policy: evidence from euro area firm-level survey data
This paper explores empirically the cost channel of monetary policy transmission during the recent period of monetary policy tightening in the euro area. We combine unique data on firms’ selling price expectation from the Survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), information on firms’ borrowing from the euro area-wide credit register (AnaCredit) and ECB monetary policy surprises. Firms revise upwards their one-year-ahead selling price expectations following monetary announcements in a tightening cycle and this effect increases in firms’ working capital exposure. The paper provides supportive evidence on the existence of a cost channel of monetary policy, adding to our understanding of monetary policy transmission to firms in the euro area.
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Supply shocks and inflation: timely insights from financial markets
We introduce a mixed-frequency model that identifies the impact of supply shocks on inflation in the United States in real time. The model decomposes weekly movements in inflation-linked swap rates—market-based inflation expectations—and isolates three supply shocks: global value chain disruptions, energy supply shocks, and domestic supply constraints, separating them from demand-driven factors. We show how these shocks contributed to a post-Covid feedback loop that intensified inflation. By linking weekly shocks to monthly inflation components up to the industry level, we find that global value chain disruptions generate the most persistent and broad-based price pressures, while energy and domestic supply shocks tend to produce more transitory effects, as their narrower inflationary impact is more easily offset by demand-dampening, contractionary forces. Our model captures these various supply-side dynamics effectively and offers timely insights to support a more responsive monetary policy.
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Collateral and credit
This paper studies the role of collateral using the euro area corporate credit registry, Ana-Credit. We document key facts about the importance, distribution, and composition of collateral, including its presence, types, and values. On average, 70% of credit amounts are collateralized. Real estate and financial assets are the most pledged, while physical movable assets and other intangible assets are less present. In addition, we show that the aggregate collateral value pledged to the banking sector is substantial, driven mainly by real estate in most countries. For the first time, we examine the collateral channel in bank credit using the actual value of individual collateral. By exploiting within-firm and within-bank variations for newly issued secured loans, we find that the elasticity of collateral value to loan commitment amounts is around 0.7-0.8. This collateral value elasticity exhibits substantial country and time heterogeneity, which can be explained by legal, financial, and macro conditions.
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Gaming the test? Window-dressing and portfolio similarity around the EU-wide stress tests
This study investigates the impact of supervisory stress testing on banks’ behaviors and their systemic risk implications. Utilizing confidential supervisory data from the European Banking Authority’s EU-wide stress tests in 2021 and 2023, we employ a difference-in-differences framework to analyze how these exercises influence portfolio management decisions among European banks. This methodology allows us to compare stress-tested banks with similar non-tested institutions before and after the stress test events, isolating the effects specifically associated with the EU-wide assessments. Our findings reveal significant patterns of anticipatory behavior, with banks strategically window-dressing their capital ratios before stress tests begin. This behavior is particularly pronounced among institutions that subsequently receive the lowest scores in terms of capital depletion. We document that these anticipatory adjustments lead to decreased portfolio similarity across banks, an effect that persists after the stress tests and remains consistent across different similarity measures. Importantly, such a decrease in similarity does not spin off into more granular business model or country clusters, thus limiting potential systemic risk through portfolio synchronization. Our results, while considering how financial institutions incorporate stress test considerations into their strategic decision-making, highlight the dual role of stress tests in enhancing individual bank resilience and reducing systemic vulnerabilities. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on effective banking supervision and the design of regulatory stress testing frameworks.
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Verba volant, transcripta manent: what corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally
This paper investigates the economic impact of technological innovation, focusing on generative AI (GenAI) following ChatGPT’s release in November 2022. We propose a novel framework leveraging large language models to analyze earnings call transcripts. Our method quantifies firms’ GenAI exposure and classifies sentiment as opportunity, adoption, or risk. Using panel econometric techniques, we assess GenAI exposure’s impact on S&P 500 firms’ financial performance over 2014-2023. We find two main results. First, GenAI exposure rose sharply after ChatGPT’s release, particularly in IT, Consumer Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors, coinciding with sentiment shifts toward adoption. Second, GenAI exposure significantly influenced stock market performance. Firms with early and high GenAI exposure saw stronger returns, though earnings expectations improved modestly. Panel regressions show a 1 percentage point increase in GenAI exposure led to 0.26% rise in quarterly excess returns. Difference-in-Difference estimates indicate 2.4% average quarterly stock price increases following ChatGPT’s release.
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Mind the App: do European deposits react to digitalisation?
The March 2023 banking turmoil has intensified discussions whether social media and the digitalisation of finance have become significant factors in driving severe deposit outflows. We introduce the concept of deposits-at-risk and utilize quantile regressions for disentangling determinants of stressed outflows at the lowest tail of the distribution. For a sample of large banks directly supervised by the ECB, our findings indicate that an increased use of online banking services leads to a small amplification of extreme deposit outflows, but this effect is not further exacerbated by the availability of a mobile banking app. Online banking use and availability of a mobile app do not have a causal effect on deposit volatility in normal times. Finally, social media are impactful only in idiosyncratic cases.
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Higher-order exposures
Traditional exposure measures focus on direct exposures to evaluate the losses an institution is exposed to upon the default of a counterparty. Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the importance of indirect exposures via common asset holdings is increasingly recognized. Yet direct and indirect exposures do not to capture the losses that result from shock propagation and amplification following the counterparty's default. In this paper, we introduce the concept of \higher-order exposures" to refer to these spill-over losses and propose a way to formalize and quantify these. Using granular data on the South African banking and investment fund sectors and a contagion model that captures the most commonly studied contagion channels and their interactions, we demonstrate that higher-order exposures make up a significant part of exposures -particularly during times of financial distress when exposures matter most. We also show that higher-order exposures cannot simply be extrapolated from direct or indirect exposures, since they depend strongly on the network structure and the robustness of individual institutions. Our findings suggest that exposures should be properly understood as consisting of direct, indirect and higher-order exposures in the design and calibration of those tools in the regulators' arsenal where exposures matter - including large exposure limits, capital requirement calibration, stress test design and resolution. Failure to do so may result in both lax ex-ante regulation and ill-informed ex-post handling of financial crises.
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Riding the rate wave: interest rate and run risks in euro area banks during the 2022-2023 monetary cycle
Add full abstract text in one paragraph.This paper examines how the ECB’s 2022–2023 interest-rate hikes affected euro-area banks’ economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Drawing on granular, confidential data for 139 banks, we estimate each bank’s economic net worth and find that unrealised losses on loans and bonds averaged around 30 per cent of equity. By September 2023, however, roughly half of these losses had been offset by gains from the deposit franchise and interest-rate swaps. We develop a theoretical framework linking banks’ economic net worth and deposit-rate setting to depositor behaviour and run incentives. Further results indicate that banks with larger unrealised lossesraised their deposit rates by less - a pattern we interpret as banks leveraging a more valuable deposit franchise to fund longer-duration assets. Although euro-area banks as a whole avoided widespread runs, several institutions nonetheless carried substantial mark-to-market losses, suggesting latent fragilities.
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Impacts of ESG banking regulation on financing new sustainable technologies
How does environmental, social and governance regulation of banks affect capital provision to the sustainability transition? As ambitious sustainability targets face funding challenges, the financial sector is tasked with channeling more private capital into sustainable investments. However, scaling sustainable technologies often requires investment in non-ESG-compliant assets. The mobility transition to electric vehicles, for example, demands increased supply of battery raw materials like Lithium, Cobalt, Manganese, and Nickel. This paper analyzes how ESG regulation impacts capital provision to mining companies supplying these materials. Concretely, we assess effects of the European Union’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation and of the Taxonomy on banks’ public holdings and cost of capital, using two large, novel data sets. We find that the introduction of the ESG regulations has a dampening effect on banks’ holdings in battery raw material mining companies, in particular those with poor ESG performance. The companies’ cost of capital and lending behavior remain unchanged.
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Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2025
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Activity and price discovery in euro area inflation-linked swap markets
This article presents evidence from transactions data reported under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). Its aim is to assess the information content of euro area inflation-linked swap rates as measures of inflation compensation. It finds that both the breadth and the depth of overall activity have increased notably. The process of price discovery resulting from trading activity appears healthy on aggregate, and the sectoral composition of activity has shifted towards counterparties that can be deemed more responsive to changes in the inflation outlook. In particular, the hedge fund sector has increased its share of activity. An increasing share of transactions therefore seems to have been underpinned by the continuous updating of views on the inflation outlook.
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Fiscal aspects of European defence spending: implications for euro area macroeconomic projections and associated risks
EU government spending on defence is expected to increase in response to heightened geopolitical tensions. This increase underpins efforts towards reaching a higher NATO defence spending commitment, as agreed at the NATO summit of 24-25 June. This box explores the implications for the euro area baseline projections and the risks around the baseline, as reflected in the June 2025 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.
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Higher defence spending and its impact on household expectations
This box examines euro area household perceptions of rising defence spending, a trend reinforced by EU governments’ commitments at recent security discussions. According to the May 2025 ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, 81% of households anticipate increased defence spending within the next year. Public debt is seen as the most likely source of financing, followed by cuts in other spending and tax hikes. Households predict a slight increase in inflation in response to higher defence spending, while their expectations on growth are more varied. They expect their financial well-being to stay largely the same, suggesting that increased defence spending will not have a strong impact on their propensity to spend.
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