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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Markus Ferber, MEP, on TARGET Services
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Collateral easing in non-standard times: a review of the role of Additional Credit Claims in the Eurosystem collateral framework
In this paper we explore the role of the temporary and country-specific Additional Credit Claims (ACC) frameworks as a monetary policy implementation tool. We discuss their evolution and provide a novel and detailed description of all ACC measures adopted by the different euro area NCBs since 2012. Reviewing the literature, we document the channels through which ACCs contributed to liquidity distribution during the euro area sovereign debt crisis, the negative interest rate period and the pandemic. Drawing on panel data on the use of collateral and securities holding statistics, we document novel stylised facts about ACC mobilisation patterns during these episodes. A number of conceptual contributions and empirical findings emerge. While ACCs started out as a crisis instrument, the historical review highlights that ACCs constitute a policy tool that is suitable for enhancing monetary policy implementation. Empirically we find that pledging ACCs was not systematically associated with more concentrated collateral pools. Banks pledging ACCs were mostly universal banks and diversified lenders of varying size and were associated with higher funding costs for their short-term secured debt instruments, though the causality is unclear. Finally, drawing on the implementation and risk management experience with ACC frameworks as well as our empirical findings, we establish five lessons to inform future policy discussions on collateral
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Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the aftermath of an inflationary shock
This paper studies the effect of alternative monetary policy responses and the implementation of different fiscal policy measures to an inflationary shock in a monetary union, through the lens of a global DSGE model calibrated to the euro area. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy response mitigates the inflation surge, but has a detrimental impact on economic activity that imposes a stronger increase of public debt, reducing the fiscal policy space. We also find that some fiscal policy measures may alleviate the negative impact of the shock on households and firms, but do not significantly alter the inflation dynamics: a reduction of consumption taxes reduces inflation only temporarily, while an increase of transfers or of public investment slightly increase inflation initially, even if the latter may have a protracted negative impact. Overall, an appropriate mix of monetary and fiscal policies may be needed to ensure a swift return of inflation to target, while mitigating the impact on consumption. Targeting transfers to support constrained households has a mild impact on inflation, but may be a way to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable with a less detrimental effect on public debt.
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Monetary policy transmission: a reference guide through ESCB models and empirical benchmarks
This paper serves as a reference guide on the effects of “standard” monetary policy shocks on output and prices, based on harmonised simulation exercises conducted across models of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), meta-analysis of existing empirical literature for the euro area, and selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis starts by comparing the effects of monetary policy shocks as estimated by structural, semi-structural and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and identifying the main sources of heterogeneity – most notably via the specification of monetary policy rules, the slope of the Phillips curve, the role of real rigidities and financial frictions, and the expectations formation mechanism. While DSGE models tend to produce sharper responses, semi-structural models often reveal more gradual and persistent effects, in line with backward-looking empirical models. The second chapter presents a meta-analysis of estimated effects based on the empirical literature, which are broadly consistent with the results obtained from the ESCB models, although differences might appear when correcting for publication bias, or accounting for different identification frameworks. The study is then complemented by selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis in the final chapter shows that monetary policy transmission is heterogeneous across countries, sectors, demand components, and time. It also reveals important non-linear and state-dependent dynamics: in high-inflation periods, greater price and wage flexibility amplifies the response of inflation while dampening output effects, thereby lowering the sacrifice ratio. [...]
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The protectionist gamble: How tariffs shape greenfield foreign direct investment
Motivated by current events, this paper assesses the impact of tariff increases on bilateral greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) over the period 2016-2023. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of announced greenfield investment projects, official FDI statistics, and bilateral product-level tariff data, we estimate a series of gravity equations to uncover key relationships. Our results show that, at an aggregate level, tariff increases are associated with a rise in greenfield FDI, consistent with the tariff-jumping hypothesis. However, this positive effect reverses for greenfield manufacturing FDI, where high-intensity tariff increases significantly deter investment. A sectoral analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity: consumer-facing industries tend to attract more investment following tariff hikes, while input-intensive sectors experience declines. Overall, our findings suggest that using tariffs to stimulate foreign manufacturing investment is a risky strategy.
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Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and using a panel difference-in-difference approach, the results show that banks with larger exposure to the increase in geopolitical risk cut lending significantly more than those with smaller exposure. Banks with greater exposure raised impairments despite exhibiting similar levels of credit distress to their peers, suggesting that the fall in lending was driven by uncertainty. Moreover, firms that were heavily reliant on banks with high exposure to geopolitical risk were unable to fully substitute this shortfall in credit by borrowing more from less affected banks, which significantly constrained firm investment and employment.
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Developing distributional national accounts: first attempt to estimate a joint distribution for income and wealth for the euro area
In recent years, projects have sought to embed distributional aspects within national accounts, with household distributional information set to feature in the next System of National Accounts. There is growing emphasis on capturing all material dimensions of welfare—income, consumption, and wealth—at both macro and micro levels within a unified framework. This paper develops distributional multidimensional accounts for income and wealth, building on the Distributional Wealth Accounts (DWA), an experimental quarterly dataset first released in January 2024 by the European System of Central Banks. The DWA integrates the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) with macro statistics on household financial and non-financial balance sheets. We use the HFCS’s micro population to estimate consistent joint income transactions for these households, enabling analysis of the joint distribution of income and wealth, including wealth by income decile. This is the first multi-country approach to cover complete income accounts to disposable income and full balance sheets on a shared household sample.
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Reputation for Confidence
We model how a central bank communicates its noisy forecasts (forward guidance) while taking into account its own uncertainty (confidence) and the public’s perception of the bank’s uncertainty (reputation for confidence). This creates a mismatch between the public and central bank’s interpretation of the bank announcement which induces the bank to communicate with partial transparency and deliberate imprecision. Moreover, with higher confidence (lower reputation) announcements are more precise. With text data from internal Fed documents and newspapers, we find communication patterns are largely consistent with the model except the Fed’s communication strategy underreacts to reputation compared to the model.
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Banking on assumptions? How banks model deposit maturities
How do banks manage the behavioural maturity of non-maturing deposits (NMDs)? Using a rich and confidential dataset, we investigate how banks model deposit maturities based on internal assumptions. Although NMDs are contractually floating-rate liabilities with zero maturity, banks reallocate them across different maturity buckets using models that reflect past customer behaviour. Notably, only 20% of NMDs are treated as having zero maturity, while about 10% are assigned maturities beyond seven years. We assess whether these modelling assumptions align with banks’ deposit structures. Results show that banks with more volatile, interest rate-sensitive, and digitalised deposit bases tend to assign shorter maturities, appropriately reflecting underlying risks. However, during the recent monetary policy tightening, banks with more sensitive NMDs did not shorten assumed maturities or update models. These findings underscore the critical importance of timely and accurate calibration of NMD assumptions to support effective asset-liability management and preserve financial stability.
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Human rights, the climate emergency, and the financial system
On 9 April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) delivered a landmark ruling in Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland. The ruling was handed down together with two further rulings in Duarte Agostinho and others v. Portugal and others, and in Carême v. France. The ruling marked the first time the ECtHR held that insufficient climate action by a state constitutes a violation of human rights under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). While primarily having an impact on Switzerland as a defending State, the ruling is expected to indirectly affect the legal order of the European Union and its institutions. Moreover, the findings of the ECtHR have been reinforced by recent advisory opinions of other international courts and tribunals, in particular the opinion of the International Court of Justice, handed down on 23 July 2025. This paper first recalls the key facts and outcomes from each of the three ECtHR climate rulings and explores the key findings in greater detail. Second, the paper outlines the climate rulings of other international courts and tribunals. Thereafter, the paper explains the relevance of the KlimaSeniorinnen ruling for the Union and its institutions. First, as a matter of substance, the paper explains how the ruling carries lessons for the ambition and implementation of the climate policies of the Union and its Member States. Second, the paper goes on to explore the procedural avenues for litigants to bring an action before the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), to challenge Union policies on the basis of the ECtHR’s ruling. The paper then outlines how the ruling may be relevant to the ECB, and for the national central banks (NCBs) and national competent authorities (NCAs) within the Eurosystem and Single Supervisory Mechanism. Finally, the paper explores how the ruling may be relevant to the financial sector, insofar as it increases the risk of litigation, and risks related to the process of adjustment towards a low-carbon economy (transition risk).
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Survey on credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and OTC derivatives markets (SESFOD)
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Main findings from the ECB’s recent contacts with non-financial companies
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 71 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 29 September and 9 October 2025, business conditions improved slightly in recent months, but they remained consistent with only modest growth in activity, with the manufacturing sector still weighed down by tariffs, uncertainty and challenges to competitiveness. The employment outlook also remained relatively subdued. Price growth continued to moderate. In recent months this was mainly due to slowing price rises in parts of the services sector, while prices in the manufacturing sector remained stable in a context of weak demand and increasing import competition. Firms remained confident that wage growth would continue slowing.
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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Fourth quarter of 2025
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Letter from Piero Cipollone to Aurore Lalucq, ECON Chair, on the next phase of the digital euro project
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The euro area bank lending survey - Third quarter of 2025
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