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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Consolidated balance sheet of the Eurosystem as at 31 December 2025
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Annual Accounts 2025
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Bond funds’ risk taking and monetary policy
Using granular security-level data from bond funds domiciled in the US and the euro area, we identify a market-based risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission via the credit-risk and the maturity structure of bond funds’ portfolios. We measure credit risk at the fund level as the weighted average credit rating of the fund’s bond holdings. We find that accommodative monetary policies by the Fed and the ECB are associated with increased risk in bond funds’ portfolios. Interestingly, risk-taking is more pronounced for funds with longer-term holdings relative to short-term ones and unconventional monetary policy exerts stronger market-based risk-taking effects than interest rate policy. Finally, we find that Fed’s monetary policy has a stronger impact on funds’ risk-taking behaviour than the ECB’s, highlighting the dominant role of US monetary policy in global financial markets.
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Stabilizing credit when nonperforming loans surge: the role of asset management companies
When default losses elevate borrowing costs, expanding credit cannot stabilize the economy because default rates feedback to lending rates through bank balance sheets. Asset management companies (AMCs) break this loop by purchasing nonperforming loans at their long-run recovery values, thereby fixing the effective default rate that banks face. Government purchases of performing loans expand credit but leave this feedback intact. In a model calibrated to the eurozone, the AMC reduces quarterly default rates by 0.8 percentage points, lowers lending rates by 1.6 percentage points, and raises welfare by 0.2%. Government purchases crowd out bank deposits, contracting credit; default rates rise by 1.8 percentage points, lending rates increase by 1.2 percentage points, and welfare falls by 0.3%.
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Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy
We document a novel transmission channel of monetary policy through the homeowners insurance market. On average, contractionary monetary policy shocks result in higher homeowners insurance prices. Using granular data on insurers’ balance sheets, we show that this effect is driven by the interaction of financial frictions and the interest rate sensitivity of investment portfolios. Specifically, rate hikes reduce the market value of insurers’ assets, tightening insurers’ balance sheet constraints and increasing their shadow cost of capital. These frictions in insurance supply amplify the effects of monetary policy on real estate and mortgage markets by making housing less affordable. We find that monetary policy shocks have a stronger impact on home prices and mortgage applications when local insurers are more sensitive to interest rates. This channel is particularly pronounced in areas where households face high climate risk exposure. Our findings highlight the role of insurance markets in amplifying macroeconomic shocks and the interconnections between homeowners insurance, residential real estate, and mortgage lending.
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Looser, tighter, clearer: a new Financial Conditions Index for the euro area
Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank’s direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single index, named Macro-Finance FCI. The VAR coefficients and the FCI weights are estimated jointly in one step, ensuring a model-consistent microfinance feedback. The model-implied long-run mean of the index provides a neutral benchmark to which financial conditions converge when inflation is at target and output is at potential. For the euro area, the proposed FCI incorporates nine asset prices – including risk-free rates, sovereign spreads, risk assets, and the exchange rate – and assigns a dominant role to nominal interest rates. It outperforms existing indices in out-of-sample forecasts of inflation and output. A structural identification of supply, demand, and financial shocks indicates that financial conditions require up to one year to transmit to the real economy and almost up to two years to inflation.
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Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: a model comparison
This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a permanent energy price increase with a particular focus on the euro area and the United States. Temporary and permanent price shocks are both inflationary. However, the inflationary impact of the permanent shock depends on the underlying model assumptions and monetary policy response. The analysis also establishes that these models share large commonalities in their quantitative and qualitative results, while also pointing out cross-country differences.
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A least-squares filter for sequence-space models
Sequence-space models are becoming increasingly popular in macroeconomics, especially in the heterogeneous-agent literature. However, the econometric toolkit for users of these models remains less developed than that available for traditional state-space methods. This note introduces an algorithm for efficiently filtering unobserved shocks in linear sequence-space models. The proposed filter solves a least-squares optimization problem in closed form and returns the expectation of unobserved shocks conditional on observed data. It handles heteroskedasticity, missing observations, measurement error, and non- Gaussian shock distributions. To illustrate its properties, I apply it to data simulated from a medium-scale heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model and show that it accurately recovers the underlying structural shocks.
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How do macroprudential measures affect mortgage lending standards? Evidence from the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey
Using information from the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey, we examine how the implementation of borrower-based macroprudential measures (BBMs) between 2009-Q1 and 2023-Q3 affected mortgage lending standards in a sample of 15 euro area countries. We find that banks generally tightened credit standards around the implementation of BBMs, with the strongest effect occurring contemporaneously. Such tightening of credit standards is observed for different types of BBMs, including limits on loan-to-value or debt-service-to-income ratios and maturities. We also find mild evidence that legally binding measures imply a stronger tightening of credit standards than measures in the form of non-binding recommendations. Finally, this tightening is more pronounced in cases where mortgage loan growth or real estate price growth is high, consistent with BBMs effectively smoothing the credit cycle.
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Letter from the ECB President to Mr Fabio de Masi and Mr Dick Erixon, MEPs, on institutional matters
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Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026
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Estimating the time-varying reserve elasticity of money market rates in the euro area
This box presents a new approach to estimating the time-varying elasticity of euro area short-term money market rates to changes in excess liquidity. The approach is robust to the endogeneity between the price and volume of central bank liquidity as well as to shifts in the non-linear liquidity demand curve over time. It serves as a useful tool to monitor liquidity conditions in real time and to estimate the level of excess liquidity below which money market rates become sensitive to further reductions in excess liquidity. It currently indicates that this sensitivity remains negligible for both secured and unsecured money market rates in the euro area.
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Consumption and saving amid uncertainty: recent insights from the CES
This box examines how economic uncertainty influences the consumption and saving behaviour of euro area households, drawing on recent insights from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). Both the CES and the European Commission’s consumer survey point to similar trends in uncertainty over time. These show that while below its 2022-23 peak, uncertainty is still higher than the trough seen in mid-2021. Additional CES questions on the predictability of households’ financial situations reveal that respondents experiencing higher uncertainty spend less on durables and non-durables, while they save more, in line with a textbook precautionary saving motive. These findings underline the relevance of economic uncertainty in understanding current aggregate consumption and saving decisions in the euro area.
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Global trade redirection: tracking the role of trade diversion from US tariffs in Chinese export developments
Global trade flows experienced significant shifts in 2025 following new US tariffs. After an initial frontloading surge, US imports from China declined sharply, while Chinese exports demonstrated resilience overall, with broad-based growth across destinations outside the United States. Preliminary empirical analysis shows that US tariffs had a strong negative effect on China’s exports to the United States but have resulted in limited trade diversion to other markets so far. Trade diversion effects are found to be concentrated in a narrow set of products and destinations, notably countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Africa. Overall, China’s export growth appears to be driven by structural factors, such as rising competitiveness, weak domestic demand and deeper regional supply chain integration, rather than large-scale tariff-induced trade diversion.
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The fundamental drivers of recent developments in euro area housing investment
Euro area housing investment has declined steadily in recent years but appears to have bottomed out at the end of 2024. This box analyses the fundamental drivers of recent housing investment dynamics using a structural empirical model. The results indicate that weak broader macroeconomic conditions and the lagged effects of past monetary policy tightening have weighed on housing investment, although this has been somewhat offset by improving housing-specific demand. Looking ahead, housing investment is expected to gradually recover as demand for housing strengthens, economic growth improves and the effects of monetary policy easing feed through.
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