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ECB - European Central Bank
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Latest releases on the ECB website - Press releases, speeches and interviews, press conferences.
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Supply chain decoupling in green products: a granular input-output analysis
This paper introduces a novel methodology to enhance the granularity of Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables. While our general methodology can be applied to any products of interest, we show that the well-documented distortions caused by sectoral aggregation in ICIO tables are particularly pronounced for products with a low substitutability, such as those essential to the green transition (e.g. electric batteries, rare earths). We therefore apply our framework to construct a disaggregated ICIO table that singles out 129 products essential to the energy transition. We then simulate a hypothetical scenario of an East-West supply chain decoupling in green products through a multi-country multi-sector model calibrated with our tailored disaggregated ICIO table. Results reveal substantial economic costs: welfare losses reach 3% and trade between blocs contracts by 20%, even when accounting for trade diversion through neutral countries. We finally quantify how the green supply chain decoupling increases the intensities of greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting how trade barriers on green sectors affect both economic efficiency and climate objectives.
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Exploring EU-UK trade and investment four years after Brexit
This paper looks at how Brexit has affected trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the United Kingdom and the EU. In 2020 the United Kingdom and the EU signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) , establishing the post-Brexit relationship and, in particular, a tariff-free area for goods produced in either of the two economies. However, non-tariff barriers to the trading of goods and services have emerged. Moreover, the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU has affected its attractiveness as an investment target. We analyse recent developments in UK imports and exports with the EU and the rest of the world, in both goods and services, including financial services and tourism. Our estimates suggest that, after the Brexit transition period, UK exports to the EU contracted by almost 40%, due to the emergence of non-tariff barriers with the EU, and the fact that no significant UK trade flows were redirected to other partners. Finally, the analysis of product-level data on German, French, Italian and Spanish exports to the United Kingdom has confirmed the significant negative impact of Brexit, especially for goods highly exposed or highly sensitive to increases in trade costs. The FDI analysis begins with a conjunctural assessment that includes recent trends in EU-UK FDI at a broad level (including sectoral and geographical details), a breakdown of foreign affiliates and an investigation of new FDI projects and jobs in the United Kingdom. The analysis continues with developments in the UK financial sector in terms of the real economy, FDI flows, banks, insurance companies and pension funds, and the evolving status of the United Kingdom as a leading global financial centre. Finally, our analysis also provides an econometric investigation into the potential impact of Brexit on EU-UK FDI, using a gravity model approach. […]
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Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025
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Not all prices disinflate alike: disentangling the dynamics of sticky and flexible-price items
This box draws on micro price evidence on the frequency of price adjustments to disentangle the roles of sticky and flexible-price items in shaping recent disinflation dynamics in the euro area. Inflation of sticky core items has eased only gradually, while flexible core inflation has returned closer to its pre-pandemic average. Among subcategories, flexible goods drove the surge in non-energy industrial goods inflation, while the persistence of services inflation reflects contributions from both sticky and flexible-price items. The recent persistence of sticky core inflation underscores the roles of past cost shocks and elevated wage pressures. In view of its close link to long-term inflation expectations and the moderation of wage pressures, sticky core inflation is likely to disinflate further.
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And yet we move: evidence on job-to-job transitions in the euro area
Job-to-job transitions in the euro area are a complementary indicator to standard labour market statistics. These flows, defined as transitions between jobs without a spell of unemployment, capture important adjustment mechanisms in addition to the unemployment rate. Using administrative data for Germany, Spain and France, our analysis highlights the procyclical nature of job-to-job transitions: mobility declines during downturns and rises during expansions. Heterogeneity is also evident across occupations and age groups. Lower-skilled workers are generally more mobile, although the share of higher-skilled movers has increased over time. Younger workers exhibit higher mobility because of temporary contracts, whereas the ageing of the labour force has weighed more on job-to-job transitions in recent years. These indicators provide valuable insights for monitoring labour market tightness and wage pressures. However, administrative datasets are available only with significant lags, prompting efforts to develop more timely measures of labour market flows with complementary survey measures.
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Car demand in the euro area through the lens of the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) – based on a one-off set of questions introduced in the July 2025 wave – suggests that the majority of car purchases in July 2025 were of combustion engine vehicles, followed by hybrid and fully electric cars. Most purchases were of second-hand cars, reflecting concerns about the value of new cars depreciating quickly, particularly among high-income households, as well as limited access to affordable financing options, especially among low-income households. Most respondents in the July 2025 CES wave had no plans to buy a car within the next year, with economic and financial uncertainty and a preference for alternative modes of transportation playing a role, particularly for low-income households. While demand for hybrid cars is expected to increase, interest in fully electric vehicles remains limited. Elevated economic and financial uncertainty suggests that the recovery in car demand will remain gradual and uneven, with the adoption of electric vehicles continuing at a slow pace.
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Investment funds and the monetary-macroprudential policy interplay
Is there an undesired side-effect of banking regulation on the non-bank sector? How effective is the non-bank transmission channel of monetary policy in the presence of macroprudential policy? Using a state-dependent local projection approach and a rich dataset capturing macroprudential tightening across euro area countries, we present strong cross-country heterogeneity. In financially conservative markets (Germany, France, the Netherlands), tight monetary policy combined with stricter macroprudential measures significantly contracts investment fund assets. Conversely, financial hubs (Luxembourg, Ireland, Italy) experience counterintuitive expansions under the same policy mix. We introduce a simple balance-sheet framework that shows how interacting funding-cost and collateral-constraint channels generate these opposing responses. Further disaggregation shows that equity funds are more vulnerable to joint tightening in conservative systems, while bond funds partly offset contractionary forces in hubs through higher yields.
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Monetary policy transmission to investment: evidence from a survey on enterprise finance
We study how survey-based measures of funding needs and availability influence the transmission of euro area monetary policy to investment. We first provide evidence that funding needs are primarily driven by fundamentals, while perceived funding availability captures financial conditions. Using these two measures, we assess how the effectiveness of monetary policy varies with fundamentals and financial conditions. Our results indicate that monetary policy is most effective when firms’ fundamentals are strong. In contrast, firms with favorable financial conditions exhibit a more muted investment response to monetary policy. By combining these two survey-based measures, we construct an indicator of financial constraints and show that financially constrained firms are more sensitive to monetary policy. These findings offer new light on the transmission of monetary policy to corporate investment, emphasizing not only the role of financial conditions, but also the importance of fundamentals, which are beyond the direct influence of central banks
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The heterogenous transmission of monetary policy to household credit
Monetary policy affects household credit heterogeneously through multiple channels. On the supply side, monetary policy tightening is typically thought to have a more adverse effect on lower-income households. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey supports this assumption, with lower-income households reporting tighter constraints on credit access and higher consumer loan rejection rates than households with higher incomes during the recent tightening period. That said, on the demand side, survey responses indicate that lower-income households did not reduce their mortgage loan applications, unlike higher-income households, and in fact even increased their consumer loan applications, during this tightening phase. As a result of these offsetting effects, lower-income households, unlike higher-income ones, did not report a decline in overall loan take-up at a time when borrowing conditions were less favourable. Households in lower-income brackets also increased their share of adjustable-rate mortgage loans during this period.
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The 2021-23 high inflation episode and inequality: insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey
This article uses data from the Consumer Expectations Survey to examine the inflation episode of 2021-23, the mortgage rate responses and the perceived and actual effects of these developments on inequality. Public perceptions of inequality rose sharply during the inflation surge, with 73% of households reporting an increase. Cost-of-living pressures were cited as the main driver. By contrast, standard measures of income, wealth and consumption inequality calculated using data from the survey remained broadly stable in the euro area between 2022 and 2025. To better understand this divergence, personal inflation rates are constructed from consumption data to identify which income groups faced the greatest challenges in maintaining their living standards. Differences in financial decisions in response to higher interest rates, particularly the timing of loan applications and mortgage fixation periods, are also considered. Together, these mechanisms help to explain why inequality was perceived to have risen even though standard measures remained stable.
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Shifts in OPEC+ behaviour and downside risks to oil prices
Oil prices have declined in recent months owing to a persistent oversupply in the market. A key driver has been a shift in the stance of OPEC+. The group has been increasing oil supply at a rapid pace despite already low prices, marking a clear departure from its historical role as a market stabiliser. A similar shift in behaviour occurred in 2014, when oil prices declined sharply and remained persistently low. This box evaluates the risk of a similar scenario unfolding today. While the current environment shows signs of continued OPEC-driven downward pressure on oil markets, the conditions that led to the dramatic price collapse in 2014 – in particular, robust non-OPEC supply growth – are not fully present today.
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Joining forces: why banks syndicate credit
Banks can grant loans to firms bilaterally or in syndicates. We study this choice by combining bilateral loan data with syndicated loan data. We show that loan size alone does not adequately explain syndication. Instead, banks’ ability to manage risks and firm riskiness drive the choice to syndicate. Banks are more likely to syndicate loans if their risk-bearing capacity is low and if screening and monitoring come at a high cost. Syndicated loans are more expensive and more sensitive to loan risk than bilateral loans. Our findings contradict the hypothesis that reputable borrowers graduate to the syndicated loan market.
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A machine learning approach to real time identification of turning points in monetary aggregates M1 and M3
Monetary aggregates provide valuable information about the monetary policy transmission and the business cycle. This paper applies machine learning methods, namely Learning Vector Quantisation (LVQ) and its distinction-sensitive extension (DSLVQ), to identify turning points in euro area M1 and M3. We benchmark performance against the Bry–Boschan algorithm and standard classifiers. Our results show that LVQ detects M1 turning points with only a three-month delay, halving the six-month confirmation lag of Bry–Boschan dating. DSLVQ delivers comparable accuracy while offering interpretability: it assigns weights to the sources of broad money growth, showing that lending to households and firms, as well as Eurosystem asset purchases when present, are the main drivers of turning points in M3. The findings are robust across parameter choices, bootstrap designs, alternative performance metrics, and comparator models. These results demonstrate that machine learning can yield more timely and interpretable signals from monetary aggregates. For policymakers, this approach enhances the information set available for assessing near-term economic dynamics and understanding the transmission of monetary policy.
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China’s growing trade surplus: why exports are surging as imports stall
Debate over China’s growing trade surplus has resurfaced amid US-China trade tensions, geoeconomic shifts and global imbalances. This box shows that the surplus reflects two distinct dynamics: persistently weak imports and surging exports. On the import side, structural policies promoting domestic substitution, trade restrictions and sluggish demand have curbed demand for foreign goods. On the export side, subdued domestic demand has led firms to redirect excess production capacity abroad, consistent with the “vent-for-surplus” mechanism. Sectoral evidence shows that this channel outweighs tariff-related trade diversion.
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Hitting record highs: unpacking support for the euro
In the latest round of the European Commission’s biannual Standard Eurobarometer survey, a record 83% of euro area respondents expressed support for the euro – the highest level since the introduction of the single currency. Using the survey microdata, we show that this rise is broad-based across countries and sociodemographic groups, and that cross-country differences have narrowed significantly. Respondents who reported experiencing more of the benefits of the euro – such as easier price comparisons, business, travel or banking – are more likely to view the euro as “a good thing” for the EU. Our findings suggest that euro area citizens have now fully embraced the euro. Sustaining this high level of support will depend on ensuring that the euro continues to deliver tangible benefits and remains fit for a world shaped by digital and geopolitical transformation.
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